Fusion Applications - Mea Maxima Culpa

As we come to the end of 2008, we also come to the time frame in which I originally predicted the first release of Oracle’s Fusion Applications. Yup, I predicted that the first release of Fusion Apps would be delivered by the end of 2008. I even wrote as much within the pages of this very blog. As I write this (December 29, 2008), it’s been pretty obvious that we won’t be seeing the first generally available release of Fusion Apps in 2008. Seems my prognostic skills could use some serious work.

Now I could probably make a case that I was at least partially correct. After all, we have seen some Fusion Apps released in the CRM space during 2008. But we all know that’s not the flavor of Fusion Apps I had in mind when making my prediction. I envisioned the first release of a fully-integrated suite of ERP applications under the Oracle Fusion brand, and I envisioned that release by the end of 2008. How I formed that opinion and the information I used to form that opinion doesn’t really matter. What matters is that I put a stick in the sand and it turns out I put the stick in the wrong place: mea maxima culpa.

So let’s see this for what it is…I was wrong. Now that we have that cleared up, there is some value in examining why my prediction was off. I’ve sorted the causes for my bad estimate into three buckets:

The Job Was Bigger Than I Thought

Building Fusion Apps is a bigger job than I originally believed it to be. When I first learned about Fusion Apps, I figured Oracle would simply take the best features from their existing apps product lines (PeopleSoft, JD Edwards, Siebel, Retek and the E-Business Suite) and integrate those features into a single suite of applications. However, having now seen demos of the latest iterations of Fusion Apps, it’s apparent to me that the job is much bigger. Fusion Apps will constitute Oracle’s deepest dive yet into enterprise social software: network meshes, interactive user interfaces, and widgets will all be part of Fusion Apps.

Quality Is Job #1

Oracle is taking a new approach to software release with Fusion Apps. It's really a spin off the old Ford Motor Company slogan that "Quality Is Job #1". For as long as I can remember, the driving force in packaged applications has been the pressure to bring new products to market as quickly as possible. The big secret for over a decade in the enterprise apps marketplace has been that the market typically rewards the vendor who releases new application features and functionality ahead of the competition: whoever “flies first” reaps the lion’s share of the market share. In the rush to market, product quality has suffered – ask anyone who has ever gone to production with a software version number ending with “0” (as in 4.0 or 10.0 or 11.5.0) for more information. In the case of Fusion Applications, Oracle has opted for a standard of higher quality in the first release. The concept is that Fusion Applications 1.0 should be a stable release, as near to zero defects (I’ve written previously my belief that it’s impracticable to achieve zero defects in an initial release) as possible. The impression I have from the people involved with Fusion Applications development is that they are willing to live with a longer development cycle in order to achieve a high-quality initial release. Personally, I like this approach – I’m willing to wait longer for a higher-quality product.

Good Things Have Happened Along The Road

Some good things have happened along the road to the first release of Fusion Applications, mostly because Oracle has continued to acuire products that offered opportunities for great synergy with Fusion Apps. Stellant’s enterprise content management products come to mind here, in that Oracle’s acquistion of Stellant provided Oracle with some innovative products that naturally fit well within the scope of Fusion Applications functionality. However, integrating those products constitued a change in development scope, which in turn may have affected the release date. I suspect the same type of thing has happened in the wake of the BEA acquisition. (IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This idea is total speculation on my part. I have no information directly or via rumor to support the idea that one or more of Oracle's acquisitions may have any relationship whatsoever with the release date of Oracle Applications - I'm just piecing the puzzle together. I could be way off the mark here, so please do not consider this to be verifiable information or any type of “news scoop”. If you happen to be a reporter or news professional and decide to run with this, I accept no responsibility if my personal speculation is in error and you wind up unemployed and/or looking like a blithering idiot).

So now you know what I think about why my original estimate for the first release of Fusion Apps was too optimistic: the job was bigger than I thought, there is an increase emphasis on product quality, and some good things have happened along the road. An interesting note: all these general categories are characteristics of well-managed iterative software development. The upshot here is that, while I have been disappointed for some time in the knowledge that we won’t see the first release of Fusion App in 2008, I do think that Oracle’s development effort has been and continues to be on a well-managed track. I'm not worried about the state of Fusion Applications development.

One more question that begs the asking here: if not now, when will we see that first release of Fusion Applications? Well, in the spirit of “once bitten, twice shy”, I hesitate to throw another date out. However, there are some signs you can watch for that will be indicative of the timing. First, watch for Oracle to provide a very limited release of Fusion Applications to a very small set of carefully selected customers. Second, you’ll see the Oracle development team incorporate the feedback from that small customer set into at least one or two additional development iterations. Once both these events occur, it’s likely we’re getting close to seeing the first generally-available release of Fusion Applications.

So, there you have it. I’ve shared my “mea maxima culpa” for my bad estimate, shared with you why I think my guess missed the mark, and provided some signs that may be indicative of the timing for the release of Fusion Apps. Comments, questions, thoughts? Hit the comments.

Apps Driving Value

I've been thinking quite a bit lately about how applications, ERP and otherwise, can drive business value. Of course, that's always the promise...it's just that the promise is not always fulfilled. I've been wondering about that. A few days ago, I had an experience that really made the point for me.

As many of you know, I ride a commuter train to the office. It works pretty well most of the time, but there are some glitches from time to time. One of those glitches popped up earlier this week when a freight train running several miles in front of the train I was riding home hit a car at a railroad crossing. As a result, my train stopped at a station about 30 miles from home and the conductor announced we would be waiting at that station for quite some time.

Rather than sitting on a stopped train and stewing about the time I was wasting, I had a software application that I'd obtained specifically for a situation just like this. I pulled out my trusty iPhone and fired up an application named "Call A Cab". This app determines your location and generates a list of cab companies (with phone numbers) sorted by distance from you. Turns out there was a cab company less than a mile from where I was sitting. I called the company, made arrangements for a pickup in 10 minutes, then stood up in the train and loudly asked if anyone would like to split cab fare to the next train station (which was the station closest to my house). Two people jumped at the chance. 30 minutes later, I was home. I learned later that my train was delayed over two hours before it got underway again. The time I saved by using "Call A Cab" represents substantial, easily measured value to me: I spent two hours with family rather than growing frustrated on a train stuck 30 miles from home. In that situation, that app drove value. BTW, "Call A Cab" is a free app from the iTunes store.

My experience with the delayed train and "Call A Cab" really shed some light for me on how apps can drive value. In the business world, I've had some similar experiences as well. An app that gave locations of a building's gas shut-off valves after the Whittier earthquake comes immediately to mind. I know at least one Oracle customer controlling their manufacturing volume and managing their cash flow (and thus their business afloat) by using a Portal-based dashboard to track their book-to-bill ratio in real-time. I see all these examples as instances of apps driving value.

How about you? Any first-hand examples of applications really driving value? Share your story in the comments.