Monday, January 24, 2011

The Sound of Thunder

I woke last night to the sound of thunder
How far off I sat and wondered
-- From Bob Seger's "Night Moves"

Read an interesting article on support fees today. You can read it for yourself here. The tone of the article seems a bit over the top, but the observations ring true with my own feedback from customers.

I've watched this storm build up for a few years now. It'll be interesting when it really hits.

Monday, January 10, 2011

BBQ and Enterprise Apps

Anybody who spends more than 10 minutes with me knows I love to barbecue: whether it's grilling, low-and-slow smoking, over a fire pit, or using a buried Dutch oven, I love outdoor cooking.

Implementing enterprise apps is like barbecuing or grilling. It's a pretty easy to take undercooked food, cook it some more, and still come out with a great meal. But there's just no way to uncook food…if you overcook it, the meal is ruined beyond recovery. Implementing enterprise apps can be pretty successful if you take it a step at at time. But it's nearly impossible to unravel once you travel too far down a bad patch.

When I barbecue, I recognize that there are numerous variables involved: the heat of the fire, the particular dish or dishes I'm cooking (and, yeah, I do grill veggies and smoke my own cheese), the temperature outdoors, the strength of the wind, the time on the fire, and so on. Some of those variables are in my control and some are not. So you manage the best you can and have certain points in the process where you check on what you're cooking…not reading the cookbook, but actually checking on what you're cooking. I keep a timer in my pocket with an alarm…when the alarm goes off, I check on the food regardless of how far along I think it might be. It's a technique called "time boxing" that I actually learned from a professional cook.

Enterprise apps implementation projects are pretty similar. Lots of variables involved: project budget, optimum schedule, the skills of the project team, the willingness of users to accept change, changing dynamics around the organization implementing…the list goes on and on. Some of those variables are in our control and some are not. So we manage the best we can and have certain points in the process where we check on our implementation…yup, I'm talking increments and milestones. Whether the project is developing and implementing specific solutions, or implementing packaged applications, you need to have certain points at which you check on what you're cooking for any particular project. My experience says that "time boxes" (we'll show whatever we have on a particular day, whether or not it's completed to the level we'd like) and live demos (don't show them the cookbook, show them the food itself) work best here. Even better, show the results early and often…before you proceed too far down a bad path and wind up with an overcooked result.

I'm hungry now…time to grill up some chicken (boneless chopped chicken breasts, cheese, and garlic bread chunks on skewers, served over a bed of chilled cherry tomatoes and sprinkled with pesto…mmm). Feel free to hit the comments while I'm out cooking...

Saturday, January 01, 2011

Buffing Up The Crystal Ball

Are you as tired of reading all those "predictions for 2011" articles as I am? Can't we stop predicting and get on with doing something?

While I'm already tired of seeing these types of posts (I'm writing on New Year's Day), I'm also feeling guilty about not making my own set of predictions.

I'm not really much of a prognosticator, but what the heck…I'll give it my two cents. So I buffed up my crystal ball (which is really one of those glass Christmas paperweights I have yet to pack up- you know, shake the ball and it snows over the scene inside the ball), focused my thoughts on the future, stared deeply into the ball for about 3 seconds and pulled these predictions out of thin air:

1. ERP Support - 2011 will be the year that the current business model for ERP software support begins to implode. Customers just can't continue paying 23 to 25 percent of license fees for annual maintenance. While Oracle and SAP may be able to run the 3rd-party support vendors out of the market through lawsuits and other barriers to entry, the business model will collapse under its own weight as businesses redirect more of their dollars into competing in the marketplace…regardless of the risks associated with lower levels of support.

2. Amazon's EC2 will become the preferred platform for companies moving their ERP instances to the cloud…and the number of companies doing so will not be insignificant. The cloud business model could also be the answer to the collapse of the ERP maintenance fee model (wrap the fees into the overall cloud business model…at a lower fee level) but, either way, 2011 will be the year of ERP in the cloud…and Amazon will be the leading provider.

3. Generation Y - Gen Y (folks born in the earlier 1980s or later) will become the dominant segment of the workforce. And all bets are off in terms of how we work. This will become especially evident in the move away from centralized procedures and processes, and the move toward collaborative creation.

4. Oracle's Fusion Applications - Fusion Applications will become generally available. Customers will find value in the user experience as well as the disappearance of the division between transactions and business intelligence, but they'll also have to adjust to the idea of planned incremental releases of functionality.

5. IT projects that are customer-facing or provide significant costs savings will be at the top of the "to-do" list at most companies in 2011. Maintenance activities will be outsourced (remember that cloud thing?) in a big way, with the cost savings providing the funding to the new projects. From an employment perspective, that means that 2011 will be a better year for IT consultants and contractors…not so much for "permanent" hires.

6. The Oracle E-Business Suite extended support wave will continue to roll through the mostly-unaware set of customers. 11i moved off of Premier Support in 2010. R12.0x moves to Extended Support on February 1, 2012. Still, I don't think 2011 is the year that customers will begin to realize just what has happened to their ERP systems (although Oracle and the user groups have been sounding the trumpet until their faces turned blue). I personally think that happens in 2012 (the fee waiver for 11i Extended Support expires, R12.0x rolls into Extended Support, and the Extended Support warning bell begins to chime for R12.1.x - that's a "triple witching hour").

7. For Oracle in the applications space, 2011 will be about A) extending the reach of the "Red Stack" into the various Oracle application product lines (do you catch Oracle's recent announcement that they'll stop licensing IBM's "Blue Stack" as part of their JD Edwards EnterpriseOne licensing deals?), and B) shifting their acquisition targets to industry-specific vertical solutions.

So there you have it…my predictions for 2011. They're probably worth less than the time it cost you to read them, but we can all have a little fun seeing how accurate I am with this stuff. And at least I've worked off my guilt.

Happy New Year!